Some have risen, other have fallen, but the leaders have stayed the same.

///Some have risen, other have fallen, but the leaders have stayed the same.
What's new in August 2015 with the elections?In the past month following the last election update I posted a lot has happened to change the tide of the presidential race. While we are still over a year away from the election, this is the time when the largest gains are made, and usually the biggest mistakes are made. To refresh your memory, the polls a month ago put Donald Trump at the lead of the republican party with 18% of the votes, followed by Scott Walker with 15% and Jeb Bush with 14%.  On the Democrat side of the election, Hillary Clinton led with a commanding 59%, followed by Bernie Sanders with 19% and Joseph Biden with 8%.

The newest poll, released by Rasmussen on Thursday, August 13, shows changes in the republican race.  Trump’s percentage of the votes has only dropped on point, and he still maintains a lead of the pack at 17%.  The biggest change however, comes in the rest of the field.  Second place in the poll is currently shared between Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio at 10%, and third is shared by Scott Walker and Carly Fiorina at 9%. Dr. Ben Carson is then in fourth with 8% and Ted Cruz in fifth with 7%. Now, that may look like a lot of numbers, but the important thing is how close those numbers are to each other.  In the July polls, there were three clear frontrunners: Trump, Bush, and Walker.  But now, while there is still a clear leader in the poll, the votes are much more evenly distributed amongst the candidates.

What this means is that everything is becoming more important in this election.  When there were three front runners, they could afford to make minor errors and slip in the polls a little. These mistakes could be fixed, as a lot of the polling was till hype and people had no idea who they were voting for yet.  With the pack this close now however, candidate are becoming more and more concerned with securing votes, as even losing 3 points in the polls can send you from second place to fifth place.

Now, what about the changes to the Democrat polls?  The last major poll that examined the race for the Democratic nomination was released on Wednesday, August 6 by West Long Branch’s own Monmouth University polling center.  This poll showed Clinton still in a commanding lead with 52%, followed by Sanders at 16 and Biden at 12.  The important thing to stress here is that Joe Biden has not even announced his candidacy yet, and he is already only 4 points off the person in second place.  This is important, as should he announce that he is running, he would likely see a surge in his numbers as many people may not be saying they would vote for him yet because he is not running.  While it is likely however that some of these votes would come from Clinton’s numbers, it is still doubtful that enough would come to hurt her chances at the nomination.

There have not been any major polls comparing the two parties on a nationwide level lately, though there have been some that have been conducted state by state. As of now, the most important thing for the candidates in general is to realize that the election is more than a year away and it is already receiving a great deal of press and attention.  This means that the candidates really need to be on top of their game, and have to avoid any slip ups that could cost them in the long run.